India and
Pakistan in the wake of a terror attack on Indian paramilitary personnel in the border state of Jammu and
Kashmir, Islamabad has written to the United Nations seeking its intervention to “defuse tensions” with New Delhi.
The attack, on February 14, killed at least 41 troopers of India’s Central Reserve Police Force and has led to a major row between the neighbouring countries, especially after Pakistan-based
Islamist militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) claimed responsibility.
Narendra Modi, when he invited the heads of state of all countries within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation to his inauguration in May 2014.
Since then, ties have gone progressively downhill, due to a string of attacks by Pakistan-based terror outfits in places like
Gurdaspur, Udhampur,
Uri, at the
Pathankot Air Force Station and elsewhere in India.
this latest attack in Pulwama may just be the straw that broke the camel’s back. It has been squarely condemned by countries around the world, many of whom share New Delhi’s sense of outrage.
So, what options does the Indian government have in response? First, there are a range of diplomatic options. New Delhi has already withdrawn Pakistan’s most favoured nation status, which will increase tariffs on Pakistani goods imported into India – valued at about US$488.5 million in 2017-18.
Second, military options are also on the table. These could include a surgical or targeted strike against
terrorist bases, or an air strike by Indian fighter jets - even from within Indian territory - on selected terrorist targets.
Third, another option is to ratchet up pressure on Pakistan and other countries, such as
Iran and
Afghanistan, which have also been on the receiving end of attacks by terror outfits operating out of Pakistan.
Meanwhile, in a significant gesture,
US National Security Adviser John Bolton has said on the record that Washington supports “India’s right to self-defence” against cross-border terrorism. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also said on Twitter: “We stand with India as it confronts terrorism. Pakistan must not provide safe haven for terrorists to threaten international security.”
Iran if it gets blacklisted.
DOMESTIC COMPULSIONS
The attack in Pulwama outraged the entire country, given its horrific nature. However, what New Delhi chooses to do now will depend on a host of factors, both within the country and outside it.
Modi, speaking at an event after the attack, said: “I know there is deep anger, your blood boils looking at what has happened. At this moment, there are expectations and the feelings of a strong response which is quite natural. We have given full freedom to the security forces.”
India goes to the polls in May, putting Modi’s government under pressure to take a decisive stand. In the aftermath of a terror attack in Uri on September 18, 2016, New Delhi ordered
surgical strikes against terror launch pads – an operation that later inspired a hugely successful
Bollywood film.
FINANCIAL WOES
Pakistan’s economy is in a precarious state – the country is thought to have less than US$8 billion in foreign exchange reserves and recently received promises of
US$20 billion in investments during a visit by Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of
Saudi Arabia. However, India’s ties with Saudi Arabia have also seen steady improvement of late, with the two countries planning a US$44 billion refinery in the Indian state of Maharashtra.
That being said, New Delhi’s efforts to get JeM leader Maulana Masood Azhar listed as a global terrorist by the
United Nations were delivered a blow when Pakistan and Saudi Arabia issued a joint statement during the crown prince’s visit objecting to the “politicisation” of UN procedures.
Soon after Thursday’s attack, Jaish released photographs and a video of Adil Ahmad Dar, a young Kashmiri villager it said had carried out the suicide attack on the convoy as it passed through Pulwama district.
In the video, Dar warned of more attacks to avenge human rights violations in Kashmir.
Indian forces picked up seven people for questioning, after mounting a sweep in Pulwama, a police official said.
The bus in which the paramilitary personnel were travelling was part of a convoy of more than 70 vehicles on the heavily guarded Jammu-Srinagar highway.
Jammu and Kashmir Governor Satya Pal Malik said there were security lapses and authorities are investigating why such a large convoy, transporting nearly 2,500 security personnel, was on the road.
The last major attack in Kashmir was in 2016 when militants raided an Indian army camp in Uri, killing 20 soldiers. Modi responded with a surgical strike on suspected militant camps across the border in Pakistan Kashmir weeks later.
terrorist bases, or an air strike by Indian fighter jets - even from within Indian territory - on selected terrorist targets.
Third, another option is to ratchet up pressure on Pakistan and other countries, such as
Iran and
Afghanistan, which have also been on the receiving end of attacks by terror outfits operating out of Pakistan.
Meanwhile, in a significant gesture,
US National Security Adviser John Bolton has said on the record that Washington supports “India’s right to self-defence” against cross-border terrorism. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also said on Twitter: “We stand with India as it confronts terrorism. Pakistan must not provide safe haven for terrorists to threaten international security.”
Indian soldiers examine the aftermath of the explosion in Pulwama. Photo: Reuters
There are some who opine that India may walk out of the
Indus Waters Treaty, which was signed by the two neighbours in September 1960. While this would create problems for Pakistan, it could also backfire on India diplomatically as it would be seen as a case of New Delhi having unilaterally withdrawn from a treaty that was mutually agreed upon. This could also be used by extremist elements within Pakistan to whip up anti-India sentiment.India is also trying to get Pakistan blacklisted by the Financial Action Task Force – an inter-governmental body established in July 1989 to combat money laundering. Pakistan is already on the organisation’s watch list and would join the likes of
North Korea and Indus Waters Treaty, which was signed by the two neighbours in September 1960. While this would create problems for Pakistan, it could also backfire on India diplomatically as it would be seen as a case of New Delhi having unilaterally withdrawn from a treaty that was mutually agreed upon. This could also be used by extremist elements within Pakistan to whip up anti-India sentiment.India is also trying to get Pakistan blacklisted by the Financial Action Task Force – an inter-governmental body established in July 1989 to combat money laundering. Pakistan is already on the organisation’s watch list and would join the likes of
Iran if it gets blacklisted.
DOMESTIC COMPULSIONS
The attack in Pulwama outraged the entire country, given its horrific nature. However, what New Delhi chooses to do now will depend on a host of factors, both within the country and outside it.
Modi, speaking at an event after the attack, said: “I know there is deep anger, your blood boils looking at what has happened. At this moment, there are expectations and the feelings of a strong response which is quite natural. We have given full freedom to the security forces.”
India goes to the polls in May, putting Modi’s government under pressure to take a decisive stand. In the aftermath of a terror attack in Uri on September 18, 2016, New Delhi ordered
surgical strikes against terror launch pads – an operation that later inspired a hugely successful
Bollywood film.
FINANCIAL WOES
Pakistan’s economy is in a precarious state – the country is thought to have less than US$8 billion in foreign exchange reserves and recently received promises of
US$20 billion in investments during a visit by Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of
Saudi Arabia. However, India’s ties with Saudi Arabia have also seen steady improvement of late, with the two countries planning a US$44 billion refinery in the Indian state of Maharashtra.
That being said, New Delhi’s efforts to get JeM leader Maulana Masood Azhar listed as a global terrorist by the
United Nations were delivered a blow when Pakistan and Saudi Arabia issued a joint statement during the crown prince’s visit objecting to the “politicisation” of UN procedures.
Soon after Thursday’s attack, Jaish released photographs and a video of Adil Ahmad Dar, a young Kashmiri villager it said had carried out the suicide attack on the convoy as it passed through Pulwama district.
In the video, Dar warned of more attacks to avenge human rights violations in Kashmir.
Indian forces picked up seven people for questioning, after mounting a sweep in Pulwama, a police official said.
The bus in which the paramilitary personnel were travelling was part of a convoy of more than 70 vehicles on the heavily guarded Jammu-Srinagar highway.
Jammu and Kashmir Governor Satya Pal Malik said there were security lapses and authorities are investigating why such a large convoy, transporting nearly 2,500 security personnel, was on the road.
The last major attack in Kashmir was in 2016 when militants raided an Indian army camp in Uri, killing 20 soldiers. Modi responded with a surgical strike on suspected militant camps across the border in Pakistan Kashmir weeks later.
The White House urged Pakistan in a statement “to end immediately the support and safe haven provided to all terrorist groups operating on its soil”. It said the attack strengthens US resolve to step up counterterrorism cooperation with India.
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